Yay another writing outlet I won’t get paid for.
9.20.22. - 32 Hot Takes for Every Team Through Week 2
Will I regret writing these in 8 weeks when none of them are true anymore? No, because I’m not afraid. And these are all still going to be 100% true. So. That answers that question you didn’t ask. LET’S GET IN TO IT.
AFC EAST:
Buffalo Bills: The Bills won the Justin Jefferson / Stefon Diggs trade. Since the trade, and Jefferson was drafted, here are their respective stats. Diggs 250 catches / 3020 yards / 22 TDs vs. Jefferson 211 catches / 3248 yards / 19 TDs. The stats are super similar, and while you can make cases for both guys, I think their basically dead even. Now, you factor in the fact that Diggs has a team friendly contract at WR (7th highest overall, making $6M less a year than league leader Tyreek Hill) and the MONSTER contract the Vikings will have to offer Jefferson…things get interesting. Do I think this is a rare case where both teams are happy with the trade? Yes. Do I also think the Bills won, and will only continue to win as the years go on? Also yes.
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are a QB away from being a Super Bowl team, and should go all in to draft one this year. Tua hive cover your ears, but your team is GOOD. The defense has good young players all over, and most importantly, your offensive weapons are a fucking cheat code. Embracing speed looks like it’s going to pay off in a big way, and the only thing holding this team back from reaching the elite level is a QB that isn’t underthrowing the deep balls to Tyreek when he’s 15 yards behind the last guy. The decision to take Tua one spot over Herbert, while widely agreed upon at the time, will continue to haunt this team.
New England Patriots: Blow it up. I’m out. Of all the NFL teams in the league, I think this is the roster I’d least want to take over if I’m a GM. The weapons are atrocious, I don’t think the QB is good, and besides Christian Barmore on defense, there are very few young players to point to as reasons for optimism. I don’t know how they can do it, but this team needs to enter a HARD rebuild asap. Fire sale for all the good players left. It’s the only way they’ll be competitive again in the 2020 decade honestly, otherwise I think this just gets worse.
New York Jets: The Jets are just the Lions with a less interesting coach and no Hard Knocks cameras on them. Stick with me. Why do people love the Lions so much? They’re building inside out, they have good exciting skill talent, and people love to say they’re a QB away from being taken seriously (also for what it’s worth, Goff isn’t like…awful). Now cut to the Jets, who have invested on both sides of the line, and if Becton can ever stay healthy will look good for doing so. Their weapons are actually pretty dang legit, between two talented running backs and investment early at WR in two straight drafts with Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore. Their defense is getting better, and the corner they drafted, Sauce-Garner, is a fucking stud. All I’m saying is if you can get excited about the Lions, you can get excited about the Jets. The elephant in the room, of course, is Zach Wilson going to be their guy?
AFC NORTH:
Baltimore Ravens: This is like a three-part Lamar Jackson take, but stay with me. Not only is he the best QB in this division (like by a bit), but he’s the best PASSER in this division, AND he’s officially in the top 4 QB tier. Starting with the first point, give me Lamar over Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson all day. ALLLLL day. Next, let’s fucking stop with the Lamar can’t pass narrative, mmk? Burrow is out here literally bringing on sacks after investment in his line, and gets to throw to Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins. Lamar has to throw dots to Devin Duvernay. He can throw outside the numbers and in tight windows. He’s not a running QB, or an athletic QB. He’s just a fucking really good QB, end of sentence. He has entered the Mahomes, Allen, Herbert tier of DUDES, and tbh he might’ve already been here.
Cincinnati Bengals: Zac Taylor has to go. I’m sorry, but this guy is an awful coach. There is no excuse for this team to be 0-2, especially with the roster. Burrow is making mistakes that are coaching flaws, and easily correctable. This guy is an “offensive guru” but can’t put together a reliable attack with some of the best weapons in the NFL. I just think he’s a fraud, and will get to hang back on the Super Bowl run for longer than he deserves. This team will continue to be held back with him at coach, and might’ve lost the Super Bowl because of him. The roster is hiding his terribleness, and I hate it.
Cleveland Browns: The backfield split is holding the Browns back. Nick Chubb is the best running back in the NFL, or at the very worst top 3, when it comes to purely running the football. So far this season he’s had 39 carries and Kareem Hunt, is backup, has 24. So roughly a 60/40 split. Chubb is averaging almost 6 yards per carry, while Hunt is closer to 4. Chubb has 3 big runs already (20 yards or more) to Hunt’s one. Sometimes the brain gets too big for NFL coaches, and that feels like what’s happening in Cleveland. Just feed the beast, and let Hunt catch a few passes. Cough, looking at you Denver and @JavonteWilliams.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Play Pickett. WTF are we doing here. Sorry if this isn’t hot enough to be a hot take, but who fucking cares about putting the best product on the field if the best product is the difference between 9-8 (best case!!) or like 6-11. I know Mike Tomlin is a winner, and doesn’t go below .500, but at what point is that actually costing your team in the long run? Mitchell Trubisky is fucking awful, and you drafted the only first round QB to not play him? What the fuck are we doing here? Meanwhile, one of the best skill player rooms in the NFL is just twiddling their thumbs waiting for someone competent to get them the ball for four straight years now? This whole situation is a big yikes right now.
AFC SOUTH:
Houston Texans: The Texans are better than the Patriots at every position/skill group except defensive line. This is partially another way to take a dig at the Patriots, but just stick with me ok. Davis Mills is better than Mac Jones. Or at least equal. I don’t really want either, so I’m sticking my neck out for Mills (get it, he has a long neck). Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks are better than any Patriots WR. Dameon Pierce is better than either running back. The Texans O-line is better, their secondary is better, and I think the linebackers are better. Also one team leads the league in payroll for their pass catchers, and I’ll give you a hint who: it’s not the Texans.
Indianapolis Colts: This will be the year the Colts finally blow it up. After stop gaps of Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and now Matt Ryan, the Colts will finally realize they can’t win a Super Bowl with a waiver wire QB and push the reset button. There’s good pieces all over this team, but not enough to get them over the hump. And to be honest, they might be a bottom 10 team just as is right now. Frank Reich is famous for his second halfs, and I wouldn’t be shocked if this team makes a late playoff push at all, but still. This is not a winning formula, and Matt Ryan is only getting older. Give up. Please. We’re begging.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Ok are you sitting down? The Jaguars have the best quarterback, running back room, and WR room in the entire AFC South. Yes, that means Lawrence > Tannehill and Ryan, but it also means Robinson + Etienne > Derrick Henry + Haskins and Jonathan Taylor + Hines, and it even means I want the depth of Kirk and the two Joneses over Pittman and nobody or Cooks and Collins. And while we’re at it, is this just the best team in the AFC South period? It kinda feels like it with the Titans and Colts both being absolute dumpster fires right now. I’m gonna hold off on that take for a little while longer, but for once, things are looking up in Jacksonville.
Tennesse Titans: Trade Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill. I don’t know what Henry’s value is, but if there’s ANYTHING left, you got to get something for him. A 2nd round pick would be best case scenario. And then maybe you can get a first round pick for Tannehill? Especially if a team with high aspirations has a QB injury. I don’t think they will, but they have to. This team needs to get a lot worse before it gets any better. I like Jeffrey Simmons, Treylon Burks, and who knows about Malik Willis. There is nothing else exciting on this roster. That is, as the kids say, not good.
AFC WEST:
Denver Broncos: The Russell Wilson trade is going to go down as one of the worst in NFL history. What do you get when you take a small, past-his-prime, aging QB that relied on his mobility for success and doesn’t run anymore and pair that with a first-time head coach both in a new place for the first time with no precedent with that team? Fucking chaos, apparently. Russ is just not it, and it kinda feels like everyone in Denver already knows it. He’s corny, and clearly struggles as a leader despite being praised for that quality. Seahawks already won the rematch game, and it looks like they’ll be winning for years to come.
Kansas City Chiefs: Mahomes is a fringe top 3 NFL QB. This has NOT an anti-Mahomes take, as much as it is a pro-Herbert and Allen take. Mahomes is amazing, and absolutely the best QB in the league when it comes to certain aspects, namely pocket awareness. But on the flip side, he is SO risky with the ball at times, despite rarely getting punished for it. He doesn’t have the cheat code in Tyreek Hill anymore, and no team is going to play him like the Cardinals did in week 1 moving forward. He’s absolutely amazing, and we should never take that for granted, but he’s not the sole alpha anymore. Allen and Herbert are THAT good, and honestly, neither make the same risky throws at nearly the rate Mahomes does.
Oakland Raiders: No amount of investment in skill players can cover this team’s ineptitude over the last three years. Do I think Davante Adams is a good player? Fucking yes, duh. Do I think investing in him was a mistake? Also yes. Derek Carr is not that guy, pal, and giving him more weapons is not going to fix that. This team has invested like they’re a Super Bowl roster, and they’re just not. Between draft miscues, the Henry Ruggs horrific situation, and of course the Gruden fiasco, this team is a dumpster fire that’s done a really good job of hiding the flames. The right move was to trade Carr and reset, and instead they did the opposite. Now, they’re looking at a Wild Card Weekend exit as a best case scenario. Not good.
San Diego Chargers: The skill position group needs a BIG overhaul. Most people would look at a room of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Joshua Palmer (along with Austin Ekeler) and think “that’s a strength.” Well my eyes are down in Miami, where the Dolphins are putting up 300 passing yards with speed and YAC alone, and my brain is using the information from my eyes to think, “damn, imagine if Herbert had guys who were getting separation, and not relying on a past-his-prime Keenan to run perfect routes and Mike Williams to make one handed contested catches evert time.” The Chargers need to pivot to speed at the skill positions, like yesterday. With Herbert on a rookie deal, they have no time to waste.
NFC EAST:
Dallas Cowboys: Micah Parsons is the most valuable player on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL. Not Aaron Donald, not TJ Watt, not Myles Garrett, not Derwin James. Parsons is a fucking freak, man. Like once in a generation freak. He can do everything and then some, but is truly at his most dominant as a pass rusher. His combination of speed and strength is truly unlike anything else we’ve seen in recent memory, and is also ALREADY inspiring copy cats (see: the Jags taking Travon Walker first overall). There isn’t a ton to love in Dallas right now, but just by having Parsons alone, I think the team guarantees a 9 win floor because that defense will win 3-4 games themselves due to Parsons’ dominance.
New York Giants: Daniel Jones is the worst starting QB in the NFL. YEAH I SAID IT. And I like mostly believe it. I’m not dying to trade Jones for Justin Fields, but aside from that, I’m 99% sure Jacoby Brissett and Joe Flacco still have this team at 2-0. Jones made some god awful throws in week 2, after making god awful throws in week 1. The Giants have a bad roster with some bright spots in some places, but if this year has answered anything so far, it’s that Daniel Jones is absolutely not the guy and no amount of Daboll wizardry will change that.
Phliadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts is not only the best QB in this division, but the best QB in the NFC. You came here for hot? This is fucking lava hot. Obvious competition is Tom Brady, Matt Stafford, and Aaron Rodgers. In the playoffs, will I regret this take? Almost certainly. But Hurts has cleaned up a LOT of things this year so far, and looks both more confident as a passer and smart as a runner. His dual threat ability makes him truly dangerous and hard to scheme against. Don’t look now, but all that Eagles preseason hype might be warranted. Jalen Hurts just might’ve arrived.
Washington Commanders: Terry McLaurin and Allen Robinson should create a support group for elite WRs wasted by bad QB talent. We could be talking about the Terry, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson tier of next great WRs, but instead we have to remember McLaurin plays football because the UNDOUBTEDLY best QB of his career is Carson Wentz. He now has 6 catches on 12 targets through the first two games for 133 yards, averaging over 20 yards per catch, and could have significantly more if Wentz wasn’t missing him on half the throws. Pour one out for Terry, it’s only going to get worse.
NFC NORTH:
Chicago Bears: There needs to be a criminal investigation into what the Bears are doing with Justin Fields. The first game was in a monsoon, yes, but the second game? FIELDS THREW 11 PASSES. That’s 6 less than the monsoon game, and 6x less than the average Flacco game so far. You TRADED UP to draft him, then didn’t invest in the skill player room at all and barelyyyy invested in the offensive line. I just don’t understand, at all, why you would draft a QB top 15 and then this is your plan to roll him out. I’m not sure if Fields is just this bad, if the Bears management is this bad, or both. Either way, it can’t happen. If the Bears weren’t so bad and boring this would be a way bigger story. He has 28 pass attempts in two weeks. Flacco is getting that in a half. What. Are. We. Doing.
Detroit Lions: The Lions have the most exciting WR room in the NFC. The only reason I’m not saying the whole league is genuinely just because of Miami, and the Hill/Waddle pairing, but when I tell you I am SO ready for a healthy Jameson Williams…I am soooooooo ready. Amon Ra St. Brown is absolutely a WR 1, and needs to be mentioned in the conversation along the other ones. The speed this team can put on the field when Williams is healthy is fucking terrifying, and just like in Miami, the Jared Goff under throws will be the only thing holding them back. Buckle the fuck up, this only gets more fun from here on out in Detroit.
Green Bay Packers: This is not a top 5 team in the NFC right now, I’m sorry. I think the Bucs, the Eagles, and the 49ers are for sure better. I think the Rams, the Cowboys, the Vikings, and even the Saints all could be better. Losing Davante Adams looks like a BIG problem for them, and while Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are both spectacular, not having a reliable passing attack is going to get ugly really quickly. Neither Romeo Doubs or Christian Watson look like a stud yet, and Allen Lazard underwhelmed in his return from injury, but I’ll wait to reserve judgement until he’s healthier. Either way, I’m selling Packers stock in handfuls right now.
Minnesota Vikings: Kirk Cousins hurts this team more than he helps them. Do you know what’s easy? Throwing a 5 yard curl to Justin Jefferson and watching him take it for 12-15 yards. You know what’s hard? Having a QB that can escape pressure or punish a blitz. The best QBs in the NFL allllll punish the blitz right now, with Mahomes and Herbert at the top of that list. Cousins when pressured, on the other hand, looks like a deer in headlights. The Eagles abused the Minnesota offensive line, which is bad, and Cousins threw three picks because of it (could’ve been more!!). Unless this team can get a QB that can move, or learn how to throw a hot route, I would maybe slow the roll on the Vikings to the Super Bowl takes that came out of Week 1. Also small hot take but Kirk not cussing is like bad. I don’t want my QB saying “dang it” like a 6 year old after he just threw his third pick. Learn how to say “fuck” like an adult.
NFC SOUTH:
Atlanta Falcons: Arthur Smith looks like the wrong hire. It’s maybe still a little early for this take, but I mean come on man. This team has Kyle Pitts and Drake London and can barely get the ball to either of them, meanwhile Cordarrelle Patterson (a wide receiver) is getting 20 carries at running back? You can’t take a tight end fourth overall and not fucking use him. The lack of Pitts targets has been extremely concerning, and moreover, I just don’t see it with Smith. He blew a potential game-tying drive against the Rams and let the Saints win a game they had no business winning. Arthur Smith, Matt Rhule, Mike McCarthy, and Zac Taylor I think are my four-way tie for please fire these guys.
Carolina Panthers: The Baker experiment was a bad idea. Who could’ve seen that one coming? The Panthers have invested so much into the QB position over the last few years, and have traded picks left and right to go from Teddy Bridgewater, to Sam Darnold, to now Baker Mayfield. They even traded picks to go get Matt Corral this year, and he’s their third stringer BEFORE a season ending injury. Just cut the losses and go full tank, man. The Panthers are just kind of the less sexy Colts at this point. Please, just give up. It’s getting sad at this point.
New Orleans Saints: The Saints REALLY miss Sean Payton. Dennis Allen and Pete Carmichael are not the answer. The offensive talent, particularly in the skill room, from last year to this year is insane. Chris Olave has looked 110% like the guy they wanted to draft. And yet? We’ve played one good offensive half of football. The playcalling has been ugly, and we’re not generating any easy looks for our best weapons. Michael Thomas is having to box out DBs for touches. It’s just ugly, ugly, ugly, and the worst part is that they absolutely could’ve won the Tampa matchup had the team not melted down in the 4th quarter and turned the ball over on 5/6 of their final possessions. It’s ugly in New Orleans right now, and the worst part is that it shouldn’t be.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: This team will never make a Super Bowl with Brady again, and Brady coming back was a mistake. Here’s a take that will definitely not come back to haunt me, right? But don’t look now, Tom Brady might actually be washed. I know his line is banged up, his skill room is depleted, and they usually get hot towards the end of the season. I don’t care. The offense looks really bad, and the defense has won them two straight games. They’ve also played two good defenses, so maybe I should hold off a little bit longer here…but the Brady cliff? We might finally be at it.
NFC WEST:
Arizona Cardinals: This is the worst run team in football. Has nothing to do with their performance through the first two weeks, just want to get this take out there. Between drafting Josh Rosen only to get rid of him a year later (ironically one of their few actual smart moves), to resetting the market for DeAndre Hopkins, to missing EVERY SINGLE DRAFT PICK THEY’VE EVER HAD NOT NAMED KYLER, to extending their GM Keim and coach Kliff Kingsbury, to handing the full bag to a QB you needed to put a homework clause in his contract… I mean Jesus Christ. This team makes dumpster fires look like they’re under control. I hate every aspect of this team and nothing will convince me otherwise.
Los Angeles Rams: Sean McVay should’ve retired. So should’ve Aaron Donald. Like how could the Rams have gotten better? They won a Super Bowl after going all in, trading all their chips to win a ring. They did it. McVay got married to a super model in the offseason, and could’ve rode off into the sunset as the boy wonder the NFL will always love and cherish. There could’ve been conversations like “was he the best offensive mind ever?” or “could he have won 5+ Super Bowls had he hung around?” Instead, now, the team is crashing back to reality and the Super Bowl hangover looks all too real. Also why say you’re thinking about retiring in your 30’s if you don’t have the guts to actually do it. He’ll never have a better chance than he did this summer. Whoops.
San Francisco 49ers: This is a lost season and anything other than a Super Bowl won’t change that. Jimmy leads you to another NFC Championship, only to lose? Great. Lost season, though. I don’t think there’s any way this season can be a positive for this team anymore with the Trey Lance injury. They invested so much into Lance, and now we have to wait another full year just to see if that was close to worth it. This team is thinking 2024 right now, not even 2023. Of all the players who could’ve had a season ending injury, I think Lance might be the single worst to have it happen to given all the exterior context. I’m in shambles. I hate it.
Seattle Seahawks: Go to Cabo now? Like I wish I had a hotter take but what takes are there even to have. This team needs a rebuild in the worst way, and the season is already a success because they beat the Broncos. They could 10000% finish 1-16 and it’s a good season for the team. They need a QB for the future, but they also need pieces kinda everywhere else, too. The defense isn’t as bad as people thought, which I guess is one good thing? Tariq Woolen looks like yet another stud in the secondary. IDK, I’m grasping at straws here. And my fingers hurt, so I’m just going to stop typing. Like riiiiight n
9.5.22. - THE Storyline for Every Week 1 NFL Game
The last Sunday without NFL football has officially come and gone, which means I’ll be losing:
-Time with friends/girlfriend
-Money (from losing bets)
-Fantasy matchups
-Sanity (from watching my fantasy players underperform)
-Sleep (from losing bets and fantasy matchups)
BUT it does mean I’ll be gaining an unhealthy addiction again, and light depression from not leaving the house.
With that cheery thought in the rear view, let’s seamlessly transition to the purpose of this piece: narratives. The NFL, like many other sports, is a narrative driven league. There’s almost always a reason to watch even the most unwatchable games, and lucky for you, I’m listing THE #1 narrative for each game in Week 1, giving you a reason to tune in to every single one. I’ve also ranked them in order of most compelling to least, because I’m sick and need help. Please. Help.
1. The Russ Return - Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
The number one most compelling reason to watch a game ironically starts with the last game of the opening weekend, and first Monday Night Football game of the year. Russell Wilson, one of the best quarterbacks in football and former Super Bowl Champion returns to Seattle, the home of the 12th man (one of the loudest buildings in all professional sports) with his new team. Russ forced his way out of Seattle, so the first thing to watch will be how the crowd responds to him coming back. I’m anticipating cheers, but secretly hoping for boos. Then, of course, is the actual game itself. How will Russ play with his brand new team, including a first-year head coach? Will the offense look good? What if Seattle goes up early? Will Ciara leave him if they lose? These questions, and more, will be answered on Monday.
2. Baker is Back, Baby - Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers
Ok, technically not “back” because the game is in Carolina, but Baker Mayfield, former QB of the Cleveland Browns, went through one of the ugliest breakups in recent memory. After being the #1 draft pick in Cleveland, and gutting it out through injuries, the Browns decided to move on from Baker for the most unlikeable man in football right now, Deshaun Watson. Baker is now in Carolina after being traded for what he views as an insulting deal for his talent. Watson won’t be playing in this game, which does take some fun out of it, but just playing against his former team will be enough for Baker to want to, in his words, “fuck them up.” Neither team is very good, but revenge is great, so I’ll be watching with wide eyes.
3. WTF is Trey Lance - San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears
We’ve moved on from homecomings, and now have officially arrived in the WTF are you territory. Between starting QBs getting their first real shot, to year 2 QBs looking to take a leap, to new receivers in new situations, there’s a lot to look forward to in Week 1. Of course, in my book, nothing is more interesting than how Trey Lance will perform. The #3 overall pick, a guy the 49ers leveraged their future for, hasn’t quite provided the confidence fans are looking for with all that investment. He gets an easy matchup in Week 1 against arguably the worst team in football this year, but an underrated element of this game is his opponent at the position, Justin Fields, is another year 2 QB looking to take a leap. If Fields outplays Lance, or god forbid the 49ers lose this game, things could get very ugly very quickly.
4. WTF are the Jaguars - Jacksonville Jaguars at Washington Commanders
Speaking of year 2 QBs, the second coming of Jesus Christ, Trevor Lawrence, will have his first real chance to prove last year is officially behind him against another one of the worst teams in football. The Jags improved at almost every position in the offseason, but none more noticeable than at head coach. I’m extremely excited to see what Doug Peterson will do for this offense, and with the addition of Christian Kirk and the return of Travis Etienne, Lawrence will actually have some exciting pieces on offense to be playing with. Lawrence is one of the most highly touted prospects in years, so a good Week 1 would get people buzzing immediately.
5. Who is Aaron Rodgers Throwing To? - Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
This next group of games will feature some similar story lines, but none of them are quite as looming as what the Packers offense is going to look like this year. After the departure of Davante Adams, quite literally the best (and most used) wide receiver in football, Rodgers is left with mostly unknowns to throw to. Romeo Doubs, a rookie, had a big preseason and has fans cautiously optimistic. Allen Lazard has been there the longest, but I’m not sure how good he truly is. Either way, no offense in the NFL will have to change its approach as much as the Packers will this year, and starting against a tough division rival on the road is a hard way to do it. Here’s hoping Rodgers is only on a light dose of Ayahuasca for this one, otherwise things will get weird.
6. Who is Patrick Mahomes Throwing To? - Kansas City Chiefs at Arizona Cardinals
The Chiefs, like the Packers, lost their #1 wide receiver, as well as one of the best players in football during the offseason. Now, they’re looking to replace Tyreek Hill’s production with some interesting veterans and a rookie, Skyy Moore. Travis Kelce is still there, but Tyreek Hill is a lot of production to replace. Mahomes, in my mind, is still the best quarterback and football and whoever his #1 WR is should translate to one of the most productive WRs in all of football. That said, it could truly become a WR by committee approach this year. Either way, the Chiefs offense is extremely fun to watch at any point, but I’m particularly interested in seeing how they look this year.
7. Will the Dolphins Look Like a Fish Out of Water? - New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
On the other end of the Chiefs stick are the Dolphins, who are the recipients in the Tyreek Hill trade. Hill joins top draft pick from last year Jaylen Waddle, as well as one of the better receiving tight ends in Mike Gesicki. Along with new head coach Mike McDaniel, there’s a lot of new in Miami, and expectations are higher for this still relatively young team. The giant question mark is Tua, the Dolphins top draft pick in 2020 and viewed as the franchise savior before two relatively disappointing seasons to start his career. Tua can’t make excuses any more with the new and improved team around him, and the Patriots are a nice way to start the season. If this team doesn’t look good early, things could spiral out of control and end in the team moving on from Tua at the end of the season.
8. The Battle for the AFC West Begins - Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
This was the hardest headline to write, only because I needed to not say “Oakland” and “San Diego” before the respective team names. Anyway, this kicks off the battle for what many believe will be the most competitive division in all of football, with potentially as many as all four teams making the playoffs this year. While that’s unlikely, someone will have to finish fourth, and many expect the Raiders to be that team. Of course, they just added the best WR in football (Adams) to an already loaded skill player room, and Derek Carr is a pretty good quarterback. This game should be high scoring, with great plays being made up and down the field for both sides on offense. Plus, as an added bonus, we get to see how some new (and pricy) additions perform on the Chargers defense that was pretty underwhelming last year.
9. How Good are My Super Bowl Favorites? - Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
The defending Super Bowl champs start their quest to repeat against the betting favorite to win this year, the Bills, in the very first game of the NFL season. There are many things to watch for beyond just how good are these teams, particularly looking at the #2 WR spot for each. LA adds Allen Robinson, formerly one of the best 10 WRs in football to fill the Odell role from last year, where he could absolutely shine (especially with all the attention going to Cooper Kupp). Josh Allen’s #2, Gabriel Davis, is coming off of one of the best performances all year by a WR in their playoff loss to the Chiefs. There’s also the question of Stafford’s health, as well as how the Bills will look without their former Offensive Coordinator. Really, this game is just a barometer for how good are the NFL’s top talents. I can’t fucking wait. Also to be clear, while this storyline is #9 in my rankings, this is probably the most watchable game of the week.
10. Which Weapons are Shiniest? - New Orelans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
This game features two potentially very fun offenses that have to rely on two unreliable quarterbacks. The Saints are looking at an entirely new wide receiver room, including the return of Michael Thomas from a two year hiatus and the addition of rookie Chris Olave, a betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Falcons on the other side have my favorite player in football this year, Kyle Pitts, as well as their rookie wide receiver Drake London. Also, two very fun multi-dimensional running backs (Alvin Kamara and Cordarrelle Patterson) have big play potential every time they touch the ball. This game is all about the elite guys getting the ball in their hands, and also about the guys throwing it not fucking that up.
11. Hurts to Watch Meets Hurts, the QB - Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
The Hard Knocks darling, the Detroit Lions, are a very easy team to like. The coach is a well meaning goof, and the team is definitely heading in the right direction. A lot of people actually think the Lions could turn some heads this season. I’m not really one of them, but this is a very interesting game to start with. The Eagles have massive expectations on them now after probably the best offseason (on paper) in all of football. This is a team with nothing to lose, that also kinda wants to lose (the Lions) against a team with everything to lose if they don’t win this game. Will Jalen Hurts and the new look Eagles be able to deliver? I think so, but I bet the Lions will give them a solid game.
12. Can Mike Tomlin Continue his Witchcraft? - Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers are a bad team on paper. The quarterback situation is a mess, the offensive line is one of the worst in football, and their division has only gotten better. Everything points to the Steelers having a losing season. Everything except for the fact Mike Tomlin, their head coach, has NEVER had one. The Bengals, on the other hand, are looking to prove last year wasn’t a fluke. While I’m expecting a Bengals win, I will never put it past Mike Tomlin to pull out some voodoo. Plus, we get to watch George Pickens in this game (Steelers WR taken in this last draft). Reports out of camp have basically said he’s the best wide receiver to ever play football. So, we’ll see.
13. Is Brady still Brady? - Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
We’re officially approaching the “you should just watch this because it’s a football game” range, but that said, the Buccaneers offseason was fucking weird, man. Brady took a two-week hiatus from the team, potentially to perform on The Masked Singer or to have cosmetic surgery done. Either way, even for the best player ever, it’s a weird thing to do. The team has also had the worst injury luck of any team in the preseason so far. That said, the roster is still extremely talented and on paper they look like one of the best teams in football. Can Brady put together yet another master piece of a season as he approaches FIFTY YEARS OLD. My head says yes, my heart (and my Saints fandom) is fucking hoping not. Either way, betting against Brady is usually a bad practice.
14. How Much Better Than Wentz is Matt Ryan? - Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
The fantasy player in me will be watching this game for my ride-or-die this season, Dameon Pierce. That said, most of you probably don’t play fantasy, let alone know who Dameon Pierce is. I’m not going to lie, the Texans should be pretty bad this year. Like maybe worst in the NFL bad. But the Colts are a dark hose Super Bowl team, and elevate their extremely talented roster with Matt Ryan, who should be a big step up from the last two years of retirement home Phillip Rivers and the incompetent Carson Wentz. The Colts should roll regardless in this game, but if they look their best, they could have people buzzing early about their potential to make a playoff run. The quarterback has been the missing piece for this team since Andrew Luck retired, and if Matt Ryan is an actual answer, this will be one of the better teams in football.
15. Is Daniel Jones Still Daniel Jones? - New York Giants at Tennessee Titans
The Giants new head coach, Brian Daboll, is part of what turned Josh Allen from a potential bust to an MVP candidate. Daniel Jones was taken a year later in a very similar spot to Allen, and has absolutely failed to live up to the hype. The Giants do have some very fun skill players, so if Daboll truly is the magic man I think he might be, there’s a very low level of hope I’ll be maintaining through the start of the season. That said, the Giants are routinely terrible (often due to Daniel Jones being terrible) so I’m not putting much stock into this. Tennessee I could truly care less about, but at least Derrick Henry is playing again.
16. At Least Lamar is Playing - Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets
I’m not going to lie, the Jets are a mess. Their quarterback they drafted last year is hurt, but even when he’s not he looks bad. There’s some fun rookies to watch in this game, but my money is on the Ravens absolutely steamrolling the Jets here. Joe Flacco gets a revenge game as the Jets starter, kind of, but that’s not the revenge I care about watching. Honestly just be grateful you get to watch healthy Lamar play football in this one. Not much of a story, but it’s fantastic television.
Alright, that’s all 16 games and a reason to watch for Week 1. Would I be watching regardless? Yes. Did I need a story line to watch? Not even a little bit. But hey, they forced me to write something this week. I’ll take it.
8.28.22. - 22 Thoughts for the 2022 NFL Season
1. There has never been more talent in the NFL. It’s annoying that is has to be said, but athletes get better as time passes. The availability of better trainers and training equipment, smarter medicine, a widening network of peers and coaches, and so much more contribute to the steady rise of athletes’ talent across all sports, but that is particularly evident in the NFL. And just like most things in the NFL, it starts with the quarterbacks.
2. The quarterback position is loaded. The way I see it, there’s five tiers.
Tier 1 - THE guys. Two young, two old. Mahomes, Allen, Brady, Rodgers. Eventually Brady will stop, right? Right?
Tier 2 - Very good. Herbert, Burrow, Lamar, Russ, Stafford. Still stoked if I have these guys.
Tier 3 - Good, but need help. Dak, Kyler, Kirk, Carr, Tannehill, Watson*
Tier 4 - Fun, but idk about good. Hurts, Lance, Jameis, Matt Ryan (only full name use, lol) and Lawrence.
Tier 5- Literally everyone else, idc, put them in any order. Sure there are some people who might be fun in this tier (Justin Fields? Tua?) but just haven’t seen nearly enough yet.
*Deshaun Watson sucks, just want to clarify.
3. Of those quarterbacks, I’m circling four names to watch this season. Trey Lance (49ers), Trevor Lawrence (Jags), Lamar Jackson (Ravens), and Russell Wilson (Broncos). Lance and Lawrence are both going into their second year, and while similar in that regard, they are in two extremely different situations. Lance replaced 49ers heart throb Jimmy G, who despite taking the team to a Super Bowl, is getting shown the door. In fact, the 9ers drafted Lance 3rd overall last year to move on from the Italian Stallion. That was a big vote of confidence for the least experienced quarterback in last year’s draft, but also one of my favorite prospects in years. If Lance is the athlete I think he is, now with a second year in Kyle Shanahan’s offense…mhm. Could be very fun. Lawrence is kinda the opposite. He was meant to save the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars from ineptitude, but couldn’t escape the giant shadow of the worst coaching year in football, and maybe one of the worst coaching years in American sports history, from a one Mr. Urban Meyer. He was the #1 overall pick for a reason, and while the team didn’t upgrade significantly in the offseason, don’t underestimate the value of the leadership in that building going from completely incompetent to like, kinda competent. Lamar Jackson is just fun, man. Healthy Lamar is good for the league, and I’m just super fucking excited to see what that team does this year after recovering from being the most injured team in the 21st century. Lastly, Russ. New Bronco. New offense. New coach. Russell Wilson is one of the best quarterbacks in the league when he’s healthy, and due to some health issues at the tail end of last season, I worry people forget that. Very excited to see what he does refreshed in a new place with new faces all around him.
4. Okay, now let’s talk who those guys are throwing to. There was a bunch of WR movement this offseason, with some pretty big names headed to new places, but none bigger than Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. And AJ Brown. Kinda. I’m throwing him in here. Anyway, Davante goes from being Aaron Rodgers (and the entire NFL’s) #1 targeted player, to rejoining his college QB and hiding from the Las Vegas sun. He’s the best WR in the NFL, joining a very solid skill players room. People think he’s going to take a hit without Rodgers throwing to him, which is fair, but idk man. The dude is fucking good. Speaking of good, Tyreek Hill. Good football guy. Runs very fast. Not a great human being, but there’s other places to read about that. He’s joining Tua Tagovailoa, which I spelled correctly on my first try btw. I like Tua fine, not sure if he’s top 20 at his position right now though. That’s a big change for Tyreek, going from Patrick Mahomes, literally the best player in football, to a guy that struggles to throw the ball 50 yards in-air. If anything, I think this season will make people realize how good of a player Hill really is, now that he doesn’t get to coast on Mahomes’ talent. And lastly is AJ Brown, who’s just a very very good football player. I hate this term, but he looks like he was built in a lab. I think the bigger part of the AJ Brown story, less so than his new team and how he affects them, is what the Titans do to replace him. I don’t know if they can, but they’re going to try with their first round draft pick, Treylon Burks.
5. Speaking of first round wide receivers, there were so many. 6 of the first 18 draft picks were wide receivers. I think they are all good, which is fucking nuts. Here’s what I know about the 6. Drake London went first to Atlanta. Huge body, plays faster than he looks. Really just a fantastic name, too. Garrett Wilson went next to the New York Jets. He doesn’t have London’s frame, but his route running is second to none in the class, he’s fast as shit, and his hands are glue traps. Chris Olave went third to my Saints, and man. He’s just really good. He’s fast, even faster than Wilson. He runs extremely crisp routes. He just seems to always be open. Jameson Williams went next to Detroit, and if there’s one thing to know about him, it’s speed. These guys are all fast, but even among them, he’s FAST. Jahan Dotson went next to Washington. TBH I don’t know enough about this guy, but he plays for Washington, so sadly there’s a good chance I won’t be watching. Sorry. And lastly is Treylon Burks, who if you had to draw a best case scenario comparison to, it would be the guy he’s replacing: AJ Brown. Tough shoes to fill tbh, but Burks is a hell of an athlete.
6. So that’s 6 JUST FIRST ROUND WRs that all seem like they could be pretty good. They join last year’s class of 5 first round WRs (all good) and the 6 from 2020 (5 are good), and man. Just seems like WR is fucking loaded. There was a huge shift in how teams thought about running backs once the position became overloaded with talent, and I wonder if that will happen with the NFL soon here too. Of course, I’m only mentioning first round guys. Plenty of great WRs have come from rounds 2-7 in these past 3 years, and before that too. At a certain point, when are there too many talented guys? Feels like sooner rather than later, the position will lose value overall.
7. Staying on the topic of wide receivers, let’s talk about my favorite wide receiver that isn’t a wide receiver. His name is Kyle Pitts, and he’s the “tight end” in Atlanta. The dude looks like an NBA power forward. He’s fucking massive, and runs like a 4.4 40-yard dash, which for those not obsessed with combine stats (weirdos) is SO FUCKING FAST I CAN’T EXPLAIN HOW A GUY HIS SIZE MOVES LIKE THAT. Anyway, he’s in Atlanta with top pick Drake London, and former Ducks QB Marcus Mariota (scoooooooo dux). Not really sure how that will turn out, my guess is bad. It’s a bad roster. Mariota has been pretty bad elsewhere. But idk, man. There’s just a tiny glimmer of hope in my mostly black soul that’s just dying to see this team be good this year. Or, at least competitive. Because again, Kyle Pitts. If there’s one NFL name you don’t know that you should before the season kicks off, I think he would be top of my list.
8. Okay, now coaches. I’m going to throw out three names here to follow. First, Brian Daboll. You’ve probably heard of Josh Allen, he’s arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now depending on who you ask. Well, Daboll was the offensive coordinator that helped make that happen. Now, he’s the head coach of The New York Giants, and tasked to do the same transformation with another top pick at QB, Daniel Jones. Is it unlikely? Yes. Does Jones possess a lot of very fun skills that feel like they haven’t been capitalized on? Also yes. Is Jones going to get close to Josh Allen? Almost 110% no. Next, Brandon Staley. The LA Chargers coach made waves last year with veryyyy aggressive 4th down play calling, and his talented roster narrowly missed out on playoffs. Now, after some huge offseason trades, they’re looking like a title contender. With Staley calling plays and rolling the dice on 4th down, and Justin Herbert leading a stacked offense, things should be very fun in (not San Diego, remember!) LA this year. Lastly is Doug Peterson, new head coach of the Jaguars. Replacing Urban Meyer is up there with easiest job to not fuck up probably in the world, but even then, Peterson seems perfect for the young Jaguars. He’s tasked with developing what many people called “the best QB prospect since Peyton,” so you know, no pressure. Again, can’t be worse than Urban.
9. Here’s just, in my opinion, the most watchable player on every team in alphabetical order of teams. And yes, like half will be QBs. Fucking bite me. 1: Arizona, Kyler Murray, QB. 2: Atlanta, Kyle Pitts, TE. 3: Baltimore, Lamar Jackson, QB. 4: Buffalo, Josh Allen, QB. 5: Carolina, Christian McCaffrey, RB. 6: Chicago, Justin Fields, QB. 7: Cincinatti, Ja’Marr Chase, WR. 8: Cleveland Browns, Myles Garrett, DE. 9: Dallas Cowboys, Micah Parsons, DE. 10: Denver, Russell Wilson, QB. 11: Detroit, D’Andre Swift, RB. 12: Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, QB. 13: Houston, literally nobody but probably Dameon Pierce, RB. 14: Indianapolis, Jonathan Taylor, RB. 15: Jacksonville, Trevor Lawrence, QB. 16: Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes, QB. 17: Las Vegas, Davante Adams, WR. 18: LA Chargers, Justin Herbert, WR. 19: LA Rams, Aaron Donald, DT. 20: Miami, Tyreek Hill, WR. 21: Minnesota, Justin Jefferson, WR. 22: New England, lol no one. Literally no one. Judon? I guess? He’s an edge. 23: New Orleans, Alvin Kamara, RB. 24: NY Giants, Saquon Barkley, RB. 25: NY Jets, Garrett Wilson, WR. 26: Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts, QB. 27: Pittsburgh, TJ Watt, DE. 28: San Francisco, Trey Lance, QB. 29: Seattle, DK Metcalf, WR. 30: Tampa Bay, Mike Evans, WR. Brady is great, but so boring. 31: Tennessee, Derrick Henry, RB. 32: Washington, Chase Young, DE.
10. Now, here’s 32 people from each team I’ll be watching for specifically because I’m a fucking insane person that needs to spend more time outside. 1: Arizona, Rondale Moore, WR. 2: Atlanta, Drake London, WR. 3: Baltimore, Rashod Bateman, WR. 4: Buffalo, Gabriel Davis, WR. 5: Carolina, Jaycee Horn, CB. 6: Chicago, Cole Kmet, TE. 7: Cincinatti, Joe Mixon, RB. 8: Cleveland Browns, David Njoku, TE. 9: Dallas Cowboys, CeeDee Lamb, WR. 10: Denver, Bradley Chubb, DE. 11: Detroit, Aidan Hutchinson, DE. 12: Green Bay, Romeo Doubs, WR. 13: Houston, Derek Stingley, CB. 14: Indianapolis, Quenton Nelson, OG. 15: Jacksonville, Travon Walker, DE. 16: Kansas City, Skyy Moore, WR. 17: Las Vegas, Darren Waller, TE. 18: LA Chargers, Joey Bosa, DE. 19: LA Rams, Cooper Kupp, WR. 20: Miami, Jaylen Waddle, WR. 21: Minnesota, Dalvin Cook, RB. 22: New England, literally skip. 23: New Orleans, Michael Thomas, WR. 24: NY Giants, Kadarious Toney, WR. 25: NY Jets, Elijah Moore, WR. 26: Philadelphia, Jordan Davis, DT. 27: Pittsburgh, George Pickens, WR. 28: San Francisco, Brandon Aiyuk, WR. 29: Seattle, Kenneth Walker, RB. 30: Tampa Bay, Tristan Wirfs, OT. 31: Tennessee, Treylon Burks, WR. 32: Washington, Brian Robinson, RB.
11. Last thought that’s going to be heavily on offense, before shifting to defense. But basically here are my top five offenses this season and a sentence (ish) for each on why.
First: Kansas City Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Best QB and offensive coach in football, respectively. No Tyreek is ok.
Second: Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is very good, and while losing Daboll worries me, again. Josh Allen is VERY good.
Third: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There’s been a lot of camp injuries, which is worrisome, but betting against Brady…bad.
Fourth: Los Angeles Chargers. Justin Herbert is nuts. Skill position players are nuts. Line is strong. Should be fun.
Fifth: Cincinatti Bengals. Feels weird to have the SB loser instead of winner in this slot, but top to bottom the Bengals don’t really have a ton of holes, especially after addressing some line issues in the offseason.
12. Okay, as promised, shifting to defense. I guess a natural place to start, after listing the top five offenses, would be to list the top five defenses. So, let’s do that.
First: Buffalo Bills. While there isn’t a shining star, the entire unit is very strong top to bottom, particularly in the secondary.
Second: Green Bay Packers. They get their shining star, Jaire Alexander, back from injury as well as solid rookie additions.
Third: New Orleans Saints. Call me a homer, but it’s a really really good defense. Only worry is age + losing Marcus Williams.
Fourth: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Everyone loves the linebackers, but Vita Vea is one of the most unique players in the league.
Fifth: Philadelphia Eagles. An already good unit adds two of my favorite players from the draft, Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean.
13. I’m not going to lie, defense is kind of boring. So here are three actually interesting things to follow this year on that side of the ball. First, the battle between secondary investment and pass rush investment. For pretty much ever, teams have valued a solid pass rush over an elite secondary. Now, that might be shifting ever so slightly. Teams like the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills are absolutely loaded at the corner and safety position, and the Ravens just missed out on my top five defenses. Corners are also going higher and higher in drafts, with two going in the top four in this last year’s draft. As teams continue to pass more and more, and the QB position gets deeper and deeper, having a solid secondary should only become more important. It will be interesting to measure the success of the strong secondaries vs. the premiere pass rushes, and see which team building strategy sees more success this season. Second, what is going to happen with the two-high defensive look, and how will the best offenses respond? To explain it briefly, many defenses rolled out a two-high safety look against the more explosive offenses last year (Kansas City, Buffalo). This look provides extra depth for defenses, and makes it much harder for a speedy guy to get behind a defense and catch a 70 yard bomb for a TD. On the flip side, it makes short and intermediate pass routes, as well as the run game, significantly easier. The problem is, bombs are fun (in this case). I’m curious to see how the elite gun slingers deal with this shift, and if teams are able to be a little more methodical and patient in their offensive approach as a result. Lastly, there’s the RPO question. RPO stands for run/pass option, which has been a heavyyyy addition to NFL schemes over the last 5~ years. It’s extremely hard to guard as a defense, especially when a running quarterback adds the third threat of running it himself, handing off to a running back, or throwing down the field. Analytics (buzz word!) are starting to show that it’s much better to defend the pass than bite on the run, but there are a few teams (Baltimore, San Francisco) that might look to prove that wrong on offense by doubling down on more runs. The RPO is still the hardest thing to defend in the NFL, but teams are starting to catch on.
14. Wow, that was a lot. Kinda bored myself writing it. So instead, let’s talk 5 player story lines on defense this year that are just objectively fun to follow.
First: Trevon Diggs. Since 1980, only 1 player has caught more than 10 interceptions in a season. It was Diggs. Interception success is extremely hard to replicate season to season, and tbh, the interceptions hid some of Diggs’ weaknesses. Can he have a repeat performance of last year? Pretty doubtful, but his ball skills are exceptional.
Second: Travon Walker. Different spelling of Travon, but still funny. The number one draft pick this year is a giant question mark. He’s an athletic freak, in a league of athletic freaks. The Jaguars took him first overall, despite the safer option of Aidan Hutchinson at 2. The Jaguars think Walker can have similar success to Diggs’ teammate and Defensive Rookie of the Year last year, Micah Parsons. Only problem is Micah Parsons might be the best defensive player to enter the league in 10ish years. So, no pressure Travon.
Third: TJ Watt. The battle for the NFL’s best pass rusher is a BIG question mark. Watt is coming off of his first, and deserved Defensive Player of the Year award. Of course, there’s always Aaron Donald, who if he doesn’t get suspended for hitting people with a helmet, will be breathing down Watt’s neck. There’s also Parsons in Dallas, and Myles Garrett in Cleveland. The Bosa brothers are also great, but currently one step removed from this conversation. In my mind, Donald is the best defensive player, period. But for the first time, I’m starting to think Watt might be able to take that claim.
Fourth: Patrick Surtain II. The year two cornerback has people around the league absolutely buzzing. I’m one of a few that think he’s already a top five cornerback in the league, which coming off a rookie season is fucking insane to say. That said, the Denver defense got to hide behind slow pace of play from their offense, and benefit from longer fields due to the Denver altitude. Will Surtain be able to take another step? If so, Denver becomes an even bigger team to circle come playoff time.
Fifth: Quinnen Williams. The third overall pick in 2019 has been underwhelming in his first three years, dealing with a bit of injury problems, but also just underperforming. He was an absolute beast at Alabama back before he was drafted, and the Jets FINALLY have a defensive unit around him that should take some pressure off of him to be the sole star. Second year, defensive-minded head coach Robert Saleh needs to get more out of Williams if the Jets are ever going to take a step forward from out of the basement. I had him as my second best player overall in 2019, so I’m going to be watching in hopes of the breakout.
15. These are getting longer, which is not the intention, so instead I’m just going to take this space to talk about Jordan Davis. I’ve mentioned him a couple times already, but he’s kind of like my Kyle Pitts for defense, so humor me. Davis is 6’6”, 340 pounds and ran a 4.78 40 yard dash. I don’t know how to explain that to people who don’t understand how nuts that is, but basically he’s a semi-truck with a Porsche’s engine. People that size don’t move the way he does, it just doesn’t happen. He now goes to an Eagles team that’s pretty stocked across the board, and while his conditioning is a question mark, he can be a huge contributor to already one of the better run stopping teams in the league. He’s going to do things that will physically look impossible, and that alone is enough of a reason for me to tune in.
16. I’m running out of things to say about defenses this year, which is probably good because no one likely cares, but I’ll end with one defense that didn’t make my top 5 that I have circled four times in bright red ink. The Los Angeles Chargers are going to be something, man. Brandon Staley, who I’ve already mentioned, is a defensive minded head coach that helped establish the Rams as one of the league’s best units. His first year in LA, however, went pretty badly. Then, in the offseason, the team added top five cornerback JC Jackson, as well as Khalil Mack, previously one of the best pass rushers in the league. They join Derwin James, one of the best defensive players in football and unquestionably the league’s best safety, and Joey Bosa, who’s right around that top five mark for pass rushers. In short, they’re fucking stacked. On paper. The two question marks now are can they actually take that leap to be one of the better defenses in the league? If so, paired with their offense, they should be thinking Super Bowl. The other question, of course, is health. If they can stay healthy, they’ll be a force. That said, they’ve struggled to do so in recent years.
17. Speaking of health, here’s five guys this year that, if healthy, could take huge leaps in the public eye.
First: Lamar Jackson. The former league MVP joined the rest of his team in being hurt last year, and now, he’s starting to drop in public opinion of the top quarterbacks. That is dumb. Don’t be dumb.
Second: Saquon Barkley. The question with Saquon for YEARS has been can he stay healthy, and that doesn’t change this year. But his line is vastly improved, and with Daboll leading the offense, this is a significantly better situation. If he can stay on the field, he might just be the best running back in football.
Third: Christian McCaffrey. Speaking of the best running back in football, McCaffrey actually was until going down with injuries in back to back years. I think people still know how good he is, but he’s fallen off radars for sure. A healthy McCaffrey might be the best offensive weapon in football, and while Baker Mayfield isn’t great, that offense could be decently fun this year if CMC is staying on the field.
Fourth: Travis Etienne. Lots of running backs here I guess, but Etienne missed his entire rookie season due to injury. Now, he joins Trevor Lawrence and the Jags amid their redemption tour from the lost Urban year. Etienne and Lawrence played their whole college careers at Clemson together, and reports from camp have been very positive. I worry about the Jags offensive line, but Etienne is a true three-down back who could immediately jump into the top 10 conversation if things go well.
Fifth: Jameis Winston + Michael Thomas. Is it cheating to put two people here? Probably. Am I once again mentioning the Saints? Also yes. But look, the Saints were a GOOD team last year before the Winston injury, and that was with exactly zero good wide receivers on the roster. I want to say 5-2, without looking it up. Which I could do, but won’t. I won’t spend too much time on Jameis here, but I do think people underrate him just a little bit. Michael Thomas was one of the best receivers in football before missing the last two years with one of the weirdest injury sagas in recent memory. The Saints now have a new top 3 at WR, with Thomas back from injury, the signing of Jarvis Landry, and the first round draft pick of Chris Olave. To say I’m excited would be an understatement.
18. Now for some rookies. I’ve spent some time talking about my favorites so far, but here’s the most interesting five I haven’t mentioned.
First: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens. Hamilton is a do-it-all safety that at one point was in the conversation to be a top three draft pick. His poor performance in drills led him to drop in the draft, and the Ravens (who always draft well) swooped him up at 14 and add him to already what was likely the best secondary in the league. I think Hamilton has the potential to rival Derwin James as the best safety in the league once he gets his feet under him. It’ll be fun to watch, for sure.
Second: Tyler Linderbaum, Baltimore Ravens. Staying with the Ravens (did I mention they always draft well?), Linderbaum is an extremely athletic center that moves very well. His ability to get up field and run should pair very well with the Ravens run heavy, RPO based offense. I know centers aren’t always the, no pun intended, center of the NFL’s attention, but Linderbaum is unquestionably someone to watch.
Third: Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers. The first and only quarterback taken in the first round, Pickett is in competition to be the Steelers starter and played VERY well in the preseason. It looks like the Steelers will be rolling with Mitchell Trubisky as their starter, but after the way Pickett played in the preseason, if Trubisky starts off slow I imagine fans will be banging the doors down in Pittsburgh to see Pickett start. With how loaded that WR room is, Pickett’s in a decent spot.
Fourth: Malik Willis, Tennessee. While I would never root for an injury, I will definitely not be devastated if Ryan Tannehill has to sit some games out this season. Willis was my top quarterback in this draft, and I would’ve considered taking him starting at sixth overall, but he somehow fell to the third round. He’s an absolute monster athlete, with crazy wheels and a cannon for an arm. He also played extremely well in preseason, minus some accuracy issues. While he might not play at all, that won’t stop me from rooting for him.
Fifth: Wandale Robinson (Giants), George Pickens (Steelers), Romeo Doubs (Packers), Skyy Moore (Chiefs). Okay, listing four players at 5 is definitely cheating, but these are the best of the rest wide receivers not taken in the first round that have had excellent training camps and preseasons. The hype is REAL for these four players, so I’m stoked to see if they can live up to it in the regular season. Doubs is probably in the best position of the group, with Aaron Rodgers throwing him passes and a huge Davante Adams-sized void to fill.
19. It took me a while to get here, but we should probably talk about who is actually going to win the Super Bowl. As usual, I have tiers.
Tier 1: Should win. Buffalo, LA Rams. The defending champions, the Rams, play in the much easier NFC and should have a cleaner path to the Super Bowl should they make it past Tampa Bay and other top teams. The Bills are the best roster in football, with potentially the best QB in football, and were one insane, 13 second drive away from probably making it there last year.
Tier 2: Can win. This is the Chiefs, Buccanneers, Packers, Ravens, and Bengals. All very strong rosters. The Packers and Bucs benefit from the weak NFC, and the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bengals all have strong enough rosters (particularly with the QBs) to make a run.
Tier 3: Need help. This is Chargers, 49ers, Raiders, Broncos, Colts, and Eagles. The Chargers and 49ers are by far my favorites in this group, but there’s just too many question marks to move them into the tier above. If these teams see best-case scenarios, though, they are all contenders.
Tier 4: Can’t count them out but they won’t win. Vikings, Saints, Cowboys. Won’t spend too much time on these but I just needed to mention them.
20. That’s 16 Super Bowl “contenders”! Isn’t that a lot? I ask to myself, writing into a void. Why yes, Caleb, that is a lot. But also find me the people that had the Bengals as a potential Super Bowl winner last year, let alone near the top of their list. This sport is crazy, and a little luck goes a long way. The scary part for me will be looking back to see who I missed on including in this list. Among the teams I didn’t mention, who are the top three to potentially replicate a Bengals-esque season? Well, that would be the Dolphins, Giants, and Jaguars in my opinion. Would I consider any of those teams SB teams? Absolutely not. But I would’ve said the same thing about the Bengals last year, so…you get the point.
21. Just for funsies, wanted to take this slot to talk about what I think will be the most entertaining teams to watch this year with the stipulation of everything going right. So, if the best case scenario happens, these are my top 5 most watchable teams and why.
First: The 49ers. Trey Lance would need to be awesome, but he could be awesome, and if he is, that team is fucking overflowing with talented skill players that are fun to watch. They can rely heavily on RPO, and have YAC (yards after catch) monsters everywhere you look.
Second: The Falcons. Is this unlikely? Yes. But again, this is a best case scenario. And in this best case, Mariota has rediscovered some of the juice that made him the second overall pick years ago. The team relies on his legs to move defenses around, and Drake London and Kyle Pitts become one of the gnarliest 1-2 pass catching combos in the entire league. Really this is 95% about a Pitts best case scenario for me.
Third: The Eagles. Jalen Hurts is just fun, man. That team adds AJ Brown to an already very deep skill room, and Devonta Smith takes a year two leap (which really, he doesn’t need to do, Hurts just needs to throw him the fucking ball more often). In this best case scenario, Hurts is an MVP contender and making huge splashes with both his arm and his legs.
Fourth: The Dolphins. It would require seeing a lot more from Tua than we’ve seen, but Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle on the same team as two of the best YAC players in the league (Hill for sure, Waddle in theory) now have a coach in Mike McDaniel that will incorporate a significantly heavier YAC-based scheme than the previous regime. The shifty wide receivers, paired with an extremely accurate QB, will be fun to watch in this best-case scenario. Oh, also Mike Gesicki. More of a WR than a TE, but still fun.
Fifth: The Ravens. Lamar Jackson at full strength is pretty much enough of a reason to make this list regardless, but they also get their running back JK Dobbins back, and Mark Andrews is my second favorite TE to watch in the league behind Kyle Pitts. Given that Lamar is probably the most watchable player in the league, they had to make this list.
22. Wow, you read ALL of this? I barely read all of it. But thanks. I’ll end with this. I’m so, so ready for football. There’s no sport like it. The ritual of sitting down on a Sunday morning at 9:59 am is what I imagine people who go to church feel like, except my God is Trey Lance. Also, I get to be in bed instead of sitting on a hard wooden pew. So, multiple wins there. The last thing I’ll say, before I offend any more religious friends, is my best case scenario for any team this season (besides the Saints winning the Super Bowl). It revolves around the Cleveland Browns. The Browns infamously traded for Deshaun Watson, a quarterback accused by 20+ massage therapists of inappropriate conduct that ranged from sexual harassment to assault. The Browns gave him a 5 year, 200+ million dollar contract that is FULLY GUARANTEED. We do not like Deshaun Watson in this household. He was suspended 6 games by an independent judge, and the league pushed that to 11 games. So, here’s my dream.
Step 1: The Browns go like 8-3 with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Brissett is the backup, and the Browns have one of the weaker schedules to start the season. It’s a solid roster, and while 8-3 is unlikely, it’s not impossible.
Step 2: Deshaun comes back. His first game would be against his former team, the Houston Texans. I want him to be booed, aggressively, and then also suck. Browns lose the game while Watson throws three (or more!) interceptions.
Step 3: The Browns, now 8-4, go down 21-0 at halftime of their next game. Watson has two first half interceptions, bringing his total to 5 through his first six quarters. The Browns, desperate for a spark, bring Brissett back in at halftime. He leads the team to a 27-24 come from behind win in OT, and the team carries him on their shoulders into the locker room.
Step 4: The Browns commit to Brissett as the starter for the rest of the season, and Deshaun (and his 230 million guaranteed) ride the bench and is forced to watch as Brissett leads the team to a Super Bowl appearance, which they win and Brissett wins Super Bowl MVP.
Will any of that happen? No. But it’s my dream, and manifestation is big right now. So this is me, manifesting.
Thanks for reading!